{"canonical_id_v02":"0062a6d7c330","identity":{"artist":"Jorge Jacinto","game":"mtg","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/d/d/dd148edc-9e43-41aa-bb50-f912115d3e72.jpg?1783911241","locale":"en","name":"Arena of Glory","number":"215","rarity":"rare","series_slug":"modern-horizons-3","set_name":"Modern Horizons 3","set_slug":"modern-horizons-3","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"00f025b89d744f40","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-09-06T18:07:23Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.1"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:31:07.042882+00:00","listed_median":10.82,"market_price":9.55},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:31:07.042882+00:00","listed_median":9,"market_price":8.27}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397 probes: 8 games, 43 rows, nearest condition NM 42/43 — Wilson 95% 88-100% — cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2% by bucket timing; a sample, not a definition)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:31:07.042882+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":10.82,"latest_market_price":9.55,"primary_printing":"Foil","primary_printing_in_record":"Foil","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"tcgcsv_archive":106,"tcgcsv_forward":1549},"as_of_date":"2026-09-05","ath_date":"2024-05-30","ath_price":24.99,"atl_date":"2024-06-19","atl_price":1.15,"canonical_id_v02":"0062a6d7c330","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":null,"card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":1.8,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":5.03,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":-15.34,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":38,"DRAWDOWN":23,"HEATED":39},"cohort_label":"mtg-en-raw-modern_rotation","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":0.21,"cohort_median_90d_pct":5.41,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-61.58,"current_price":9.6,"history_first_date":"2024-05-30","history_last_date":"2026-09-05","history_n_distinct_closes":632,"history_n_obs":1655,"history_n_obs_series":829,"liquidity_tier":"T1","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-08-11","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-07-22","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2024-06-25","delta_pct":25,"label":"+25% day-over-day","price":1.85,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2024-06-19","delta_pct":-95.4,"label":"-95% off peak","price":1.15,"type":"drawdown_low"},{"date":"2024-06-14","delta_pct":-25.8,"label":"-26% day-over-day","price":1.73,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2024-06-11","delta_pct":-55.6,"label":"-56% day-over-day","price":2.81,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2024-06-08","delta_pct":-25.1,"label":"-25% day-over-day","price":9.29,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2024-06-07","delta_pct":-29.9,"label":"-30% day-over-day","price":12.4,"type":"outlier_spike"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":31,"regime_entered_date":"2026-08-11","regime_label":"DRAWDOWN","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":0,"DRAWDOWN":71,"HEATED":29},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":5,"DRAWDOWN":54,"HEATED":41},"regime_run_length_days":25,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2025-12-07","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-12-10","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2025-12-11","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-07","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-01-08","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-14","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-01-15","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-24","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-01-27","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-02-05","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-03-08","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-03-10","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-04-21","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-04-22","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-04-23","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-04-24","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-04-25","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-04-26","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-07-22","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-11","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":1.8,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":4.83,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":-20.75,"series_printing":"Foil","series_printing_determinacy":{"decided_by":"total_tiebreak","margin":0,"n_candidates":2,"pool":"recent","tie_members":["Foil","Normal"]}},"trajectory":{"return_1y_pct":-9.43,"return_30d_pct":5.03,"return_7d_pct":0.31,"return_90d_pct":-15.34,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-08-06","price":9.14},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":9.24},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":9.24},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":9.24},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":9.39},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":9.42},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":9.48},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":9.51},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":9.67},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":9.68},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":9.77},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":9.77},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":9.77},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":9.57},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":9.55},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":9.55},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":9.55},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":9.6}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-06-07","price":11.34},{"date":"2026-06-09","price":11.32},{"date":"2026-06-11","price":11.26},{"date":"2026-06-13","price":11.26},{"date":"2026-06-15","price":11.18},{"date":"2026-06-17","price":11.21},{"date":"2026-06-19","price":11.25},{"date":"2026-06-21","price":11.23},{"date":"2026-06-23","price":11.26},{"date":"2026-06-25","price":11.27},{"date":"2026-06-27","price":11.24},{"date":"2026-06-29","price":11.17},{"date":"2026-07-01","price":11.22},{"date":"2026-07-03","price":10.98},{"date":"2026-07-05","price":10.84},{"date":"2026-07-07","price":10.84},{"date":"2026-07-09","price":10.55},{"date":"2026-07-11","price":10.53},{"date":"2026-07-13","price":10.26},{"date":"2026-07-15","price":10.15},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":9.96},{"date":"2026-07-19","price":9.84},{"date":"2026-07-21","price":9.6},{"date":"2026-07-23","price":9.39},{"date":"2026-07-25","price":9.11},{"date":"2026-07-27","price":9.07},{"date":"2026-07-29","price":9},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":8.98},{"date":"2026-08-02","price":9.09},{"date":"2026-08-04","price":9.05},{"date":"2026-08-06","price":9.14},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":9.24},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":9.39},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":9.48},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":9.43},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":9.67},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":9.77},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":9.77},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":9.49},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":9.55},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":9.6}],"series_key":"553264|Foil","series_printing":"Foil"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=Arena%20of%20Glory%20Modern%20Horizons%203&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":"https://scryfall.com/search?q=Arena%20of%20Glory","tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=Arena%20of%20Glory%20Modern%20Horizons%203&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"0062a6d7c330","game":"mtg","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/0062a6d7c330","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/mtg/builds/00f025b89d744f40/00.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}