{"canonical_id_v02":"28e6cccc4fc4","identity":{"artist":"Ekaterina Burmak","game":"mtg","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/f/4/f421da3b-b88d-4e9f-865b-61120bff917a.jpg?1783907206","locale":"en","name":"Elspeth, Storm Slayer","number":"401","rarity":"mythic","series_slug":"tarkir-dragonstorm","set_name":"Tarkir: Dragonstorm","set_slug":"tarkir-dragonstorm","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"00f025b89d744f40","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-09-06T18:07:23Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.1"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:24:25.931815+00:00","listed_median":104.99,"market_price":96.33},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:24:25.931815+00:00","listed_median":null,"market_price":null}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397 probes: 8 games, 43 rows, nearest condition NM 42/43 — Wilson 95% 88-100% — cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2% by bucket timing; a sample, not a definition)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:24:25.931815+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":104.99,"latest_market_price":96.33,"primary_printing":"Foil","primary_printing_in_record":"Foil","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"tcgcsv_archive":31,"tcgcsv_forward":498},"as_of_date":"2026-09-05","ath_date":"2025-05-12","ath_price":112.25,"atl_date":"2025-11-29","atl_price":63.62,"canonical_id_v02":"28e6cccc4fc4","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":null,"card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":-0.74,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":3.36,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":1.66,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":34,"DRAWDOWN":27,"HEATED":39},"cohort_label":"mtg-en-raw-nascent","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":0,"cohort_median_90d_pct":4.05,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-14.15,"current_price":96.37,"history_first_date":"2025-03-20","history_last_date":"2026-09-05","history_n_distinct_closes":354,"history_n_obs":529,"history_n_obs_series":529,"liquidity_tier":"T1","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-05-21","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→CALM","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-04-21","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-01-09","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-01-07","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-11-29","delta_pct":-43.3,"label":"-43% off peak","price":63.62,"type":"drawdown_low"},{"date":"2025-08-03","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-08-02","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-08-01","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":87,"regime_entered_date":"2026-05-21","regime_label":"CALM","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":30,"DRAWDOWN":61,"HEATED":9},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":30,"DRAWDOWN":49,"HEATED":21},"regime_run_length_days":107,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2025-04-14","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-05-13","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2025-06-16","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-08-01","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2025-08-02","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-08-03","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-01-07","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-09","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-04-21","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-05-21","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":-0.74,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":3.36,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":-2.4,"series_printing":"Foil","series_printing_determinacy":{"decided_by":"count","margin":181,"n_candidates":1,"pool":"recent","tie_members":[]}},"trajectory":{"return_1y_pct":39.06,"return_30d_pct":3.36,"return_7d_pct":-0.63,"return_90d_pct":1.66,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-08-06","price":93.24},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":94.03},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":94.03},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":94.03},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":94.03},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":94.03},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":95.57},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":95.57},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":95.18},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":94.93},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":94.93},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":95.37},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":95.23},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":95.23},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":97.09},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":97.09},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":97.09},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":97.35},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":97.33},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":97.66},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":97.11},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":97.11},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":96.91},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":96.98},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":97.11},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":97.33},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":96.63},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":96.63},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":96.04},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":96.33},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":96.37}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-06-07","price":94.8},{"date":"2026-06-09","price":94.8},{"date":"2026-06-11","price":94.97},{"date":"2026-06-13","price":94.97},{"date":"2026-06-15","price":94.97},{"date":"2026-06-17","price":94.72},{"date":"2026-06-19","price":94.18},{"date":"2026-06-21","price":94.18},{"date":"2026-06-23","price":94.18},{"date":"2026-06-25","price":94.18},{"date":"2026-06-27","price":94.37},{"date":"2026-06-29","price":95.54},{"date":"2026-07-01","price":95.54},{"date":"2026-07-03","price":94.85},{"date":"2026-07-05","price":94.85},{"date":"2026-07-07","price":94.85},{"date":"2026-07-09","price":94.85},{"date":"2026-07-11","price":94.85},{"date":"2026-07-13","price":95.19},{"date":"2026-07-15","price":95.19},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":95.2},{"date":"2026-07-19","price":95.17},{"date":"2026-07-21","price":95.17},{"date":"2026-07-23","price":95.17},{"date":"2026-07-25","price":94.54},{"date":"2026-07-27","price":94.54},{"date":"2026-07-29","price":94.54},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":92.95},{"date":"2026-08-02","price":92.86},{"date":"2026-08-04","price":92.68},{"date":"2026-08-06","price":93.24},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":94.03},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":94.03},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":95.57},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":95.18},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":94.93},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":95.23},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":97.09},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":97.09},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":97.33},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":97.11},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":96.91},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":97.11},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":96.63},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":96.04},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":96.37}],"series_key":"623960|Foil","series_printing":"Foil"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=Elspeth%2C%20Storm%20Slayer%20Tarkir%3A%20Dragonstorm&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":"https://scryfall.com/search?q=Elspeth%2C%20Storm%20Slayer","tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=Elspeth%2C%20Storm%20Slayer%20Tarkir%3A%20Dragonstorm&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"28e6cccc4fc4","game":"mtg","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/28e6cccc4fc4","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/mtg/builds/00f025b89d744f40/28.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}