{"canonical_id_v02":"2a00c22f808a","identity":{"artist":"Marcin Panasiuk","game":"lorcana","grade":"raw","image_url":null,"locale":"en","name":"The Black Cauldron","number":"225/204","rarity":"Enchanted","series_slug":"whispers-in-the-well","set_name":"Whispers in the Well","set_slug":"whispers-in-the-well","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"c8c7e478f899abbc","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-09-12T13:33:59Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.1"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-11T23:21:05.142816+00:00","listed_median":105.38,"market_price":77.98},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-11T23:21:05.142816+00:00","listed_median":null,"market_price":null}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397/fu398 probes, two strata: 8 games, 43 rows at >= $5 — nearest condition NM 42/43, cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2%; 5 games, 28 rows at >= $0.50 on year-old groups — nearest NM 27/28, cent-equal 16/28, misses <= 9.3%, the one miss a $1.29 card whose condition SKUs sit within cents; pooled nearest NM 69/71, Wilson 95% ~90-99%; a sample, not a definition)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-11T23:21:05.142816+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":105.38,"latest_market_price":77.98,"primary_printing":"Foil","primary_printing_in_record":"Holofoil","primary_printing_resolution":"bridged"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"mpapi_live":1,"tcgcsv_archive":29,"tcgcsv_forward":276},"as_of_date":"2026-09-11","ath_date":"2026-03-24","ath_price":88.96,"atl_date":"2026-01-28","atl_price":34.36,"canonical_id_v02":"2a00c22f808a","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":"2a00c22f808a","card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":1.95,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":-8.26,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":-0.17,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":8,"DRAWDOWN":28,"HEATED":64},"cohort_label":"lorcana-en-raw-nascent","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":0,"cohort_median_90d_pct":14.69,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-12.34,"current_price":77.98,"history_first_date":"2025-11-11","history_last_date":"2026-09-11","history_n_distinct_closes":135,"history_n_obs":306,"history_n_obs_series":305,"liquidity_tier":"T1","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-04-11","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→CALM","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-02-11","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-01-31","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-01-28","delta_pct":-39.5,"label":"-39% off peak","price":34.36,"type":"drawdown_low"},{"date":"2026-01-14","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-01-04","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-12-06","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-11-29","delta_pct":null,"label":"CALM→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":52,"regime_entered_date":"2026-04-11","regime_label":"CALM","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":56,"DRAWDOWN":9,"HEATED":35},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":56,"DRAWDOWN":9,"HEATED":35},"regime_run_length_days":153,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2025-11-29","from":"CALM","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2025-12-06","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-04","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-01-14","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-31","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-02-11","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-04-11","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":1.95,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":-8.26,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":-14.86,"residual_vs_set_90d_pct":-17.98,"series_printing":"Holofoil","series_printing_determinacy":{"decided_by":"count","margin":180,"n_candidates":2,"pool":"recent","tie_members":[]},"set_median_90d_pct_loo":17.81,"set_movers_share_90d":0.8548,"set_n_90d":241,"set_slug":"whispers-in-the-well"},"trajectory":{"return_1y_pct":null,"return_30d_pct":-8.2588,"return_7d_pct":1.0365,"return_90d_pct":-0.1664,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-08-12","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":84.16},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":84.16},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":79.8},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":77.81},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":77.25},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":76.85},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":75.35},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":75.45},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":75.45},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":75.88},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":75.88},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":75.92},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":75.89},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":76.49},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":76.49},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":76.49},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":77.21},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":77.21},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":77.21},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":77.21},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-06","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-07","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-08","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-09","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-10","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-11","price":77.98}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-06-13","price":78.11},{"date":"2026-06-15","price":77.11},{"date":"2026-06-17","price":77.1},{"date":"2026-06-19","price":77.81},{"date":"2026-06-21","price":77.81},{"date":"2026-06-23","price":77.81},{"date":"2026-06-25","price":77.35},{"date":"2026-06-27","price":78.88},{"date":"2026-06-29","price":78.92},{"date":"2026-07-01","price":80.55},{"date":"2026-07-03","price":81.05},{"date":"2026-07-05","price":81.93},{"date":"2026-07-07","price":82.92},{"date":"2026-07-09","price":84.6},{"date":"2026-07-11","price":84.6},{"date":"2026-07-13","price":84.57},{"date":"2026-07-15","price":84.57},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":84.74},{"date":"2026-07-19","price":84.74},{"date":"2026-07-21","price":84.98},{"date":"2026-07-23","price":84.51},{"date":"2026-07-25","price":84.67},{"date":"2026-07-27","price":84.67},{"date":"2026-07-29","price":85},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-02","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-04","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-06","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":85},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":84.16},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":77.81},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":76.85},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":75.45},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":75.88},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":75.92},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":76.49},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":76.49},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":77.21},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":77.21},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-07","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-09","price":77.18},{"date":"2026-09-11","price":77.98}],"series_key":"658884|Holofoil","series_printing":"Holofoil"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=The%20Black%20Cauldron%20Whispers%20in%20the%20Well&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":null,"tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=The%20Black%20Cauldron%20Whispers%20in%20the%20Well&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"2a00c22f808a","game":"lorcana","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/2a00c22f808a","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/lorcana/builds/c8c7e478f899abbc/2a.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}