{"canonical_id_v02":"2c8e0e58fcd0","canonical_url_id":"2c8e0e58fcd0","identity":{"artist":"Dan Frazier","game":"mtg","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/b/5/b58e931a-d4dd-4705-ae31-89c0aecbf192.jpg?1783926552","locale":"en","name":"Simic Signet","number":"295","rarity":"rare","series_slug":"secret-lair-drop-series","set_name":"Secret Lair Drop","set_slug":"secret-lair-drop","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"lineage":null,"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"ba0f61e2119b11ba","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-10-18T11:44:27Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.5"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-10-17T18:15:46.360948+00:00","listed_median":null,"market_price":null},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-10-17T18:15:46.360948+00:00","listed_median":8.49,"market_price":7.1}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397/fu398 probes, two strata: 8 games, 43 rows at >= $5 — nearest condition NM 42/43, cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2%; 5 games, 28 rows at >= $0.50 on year-old groups — nearest NM 27/28, cent-equal 16/28, misses <= 9.3%, the one miss a $1.29 card whose condition SKUs sit within cents; pooled nearest NM 69/71, Wilson 95% ~90-99%; a sample, not a definition; third stratum fu506 (top 8 per game, 24 decidable card rows): NM-consistent +-10% 17/24; 1 LP to the cent, 1 nearest HP at 117x, 2 at 1.7-1.8x NM, 1 NM unpriced; 35 of 64 top rows were sealed)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-10-17T18:15:46.360948+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":8.49,"latest_market_price":7.1,"primary_printing":"Normal","primary_printing_in_record":"Normal","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"tcgcsv_archive":61,"tcgcsv_forward":922},"as_of_date":"2026-10-17","ath_date":"2024-02-11","ath_price":16.91,"ath_since_release_date":"2026-07-28","ath_since_release_price":8.3,"atl_date":"2026-10-17","atl_price":7.1,"canonical_id_v02":"2c8e0e58fcd0","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":null,"card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":-2.2,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":-5.59,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":-14.04,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":33,"DRAWDOWN":28,"HEATED":39},"cohort_label":"mtg-en-raw-nascent","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":0,"cohort_median_90d_pct":0.8,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-58.01,"current_price":7.1,"history_first_date":"2024-02-08","history_first_date_series":"2024-02-08","history_last_date":"2026-10-17","history_last_date_series":"2026-10-17","history_n_distinct_closes":256,"history_n_obs":983,"history_n_obs_series":983,"liquidity_tier":"T1","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-10-17","delta_pct":-58,"label":"-58% off peak","price":7.1,"type":"drawdown_low"},{"date":"2025-08-31","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-07-25","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-05-12","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-05-09","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-02-21","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2025-02-07","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2024-07-19","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":0,"recent_steps":{"dates":[],"dates_truncated":false,"n":0,"threshold_pct":50,"window_days":120},"regime_entered_date":"2025-08-31","regime_label":"DRAWDOWN","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":0,"DRAWDOWN":100,"HEATED":0},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":8,"DRAWDOWN":79,"HEATED":13},"regime_run_length_days":412,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2024-04-27","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2024-06-09","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2024-06-18","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2024-07-19","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2025-02-07","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-02-21","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2025-05-09","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-05-12","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2025-07-25","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-08-31","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":-2.2,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":-5.59,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":-14.84,"residual_vs_set_90d_pct":-15.87,"series_printing":"Normal","series_printing_determinacy":{"decided_by":"count","margin":181,"n_candidates":1,"pool":"recent","tie_members":[]},"set_median_90d_pct_loo":1.83,"set_member_unit":"printings","set_members_are_printings":true,"set_movers_share_90d":0.9902,"set_n_90d":2543,"set_release_date":"2026-05-11","set_slug":"secret-lair-drop"},"trajectory":{"return_1y_base":{"date":"2025-10-17","price":7.35},"return_1y_pct":-3.4014,"return_30d_pct":-5.5851,"return_7d_pct":-1.1142,"return_90d_pct":-14.0436,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-09-17","price":7.52},{"date":"2026-09-18","price":7.52},{"date":"2026-09-19","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-20","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-21","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-09-22","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-09-23","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-24","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-25","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-26","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-27","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-28","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-29","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-09-30","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-01","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-02","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-03","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-04","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-05","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-06","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-07","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-08","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-09","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-10","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-11","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-12","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-13","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-14","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-15","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-16","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-17","price":7.1}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-07-19","price":8.26},{"date":"2026-07-21","price":8.26},{"date":"2026-07-23","price":8.26},{"date":"2026-07-25","price":8.26},{"date":"2026-07-27","price":8.28},{"date":"2026-07-29","price":8.3},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":8.3},{"date":"2026-08-02","price":8.3},{"date":"2026-08-04","price":8.16},{"date":"2026-08-06","price":8.19},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":8.22},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":8.22},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":8.22},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":8.22},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":8.22},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":8.22},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":8.22},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":8.14},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":7.94},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":7.94},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":7.94},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":7.76},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":7.76},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":7.76},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":7.67},{"date":"2026-09-07","price":7.67},{"date":"2026-09-09","price":7.67},{"date":"2026-09-11","price":7.73},{"date":"2026-09-13","price":7.52},{"date":"2026-09-15","price":7.52},{"date":"2026-09-17","price":7.52},{"date":"2026-09-19","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-21","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-09-23","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-25","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-27","price":7.41},{"date":"2026-09-29","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-01","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-03","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-05","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-07","price":7.26},{"date":"2026-10-09","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-11","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-13","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-15","price":7.18},{"date":"2026-10-17","price":7.1}],"series_key":"242395|Normal","series_printing":"Normal"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=Simic%20Signet%20Secret%20Lair%20Drop&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":"https://scryfall.com/search?q=Simic%20Signet","tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=Simic%20Signet%20Secret%20Lair%20Drop&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"2c8e0e58fcd0","game":"mtg","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/2c8e0e58fcd0","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/mtg/builds/ba0f61e2119b11ba/2c.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"page_headline":{"price":7.1,"printing":"Normal","as_of":"2026-10-17","computed_by":"witness/src/render-card.ts _heroMarketPrice, _heroDisplayPrinting, heroAsOfDay: the functions the HTML page calls on this same record (build_shard below). Unrounded: the page prints whole dollars from $100."},"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field outside `_handle` is served verbatim from the build shard. Two `_handle` entries are computed: `provenance_fields` (from the record) and `page_headline` (the figure the page rendered from this build_shard heads with, by the page's own functions; a page served from the edge cache within an hour of a build change can still show the previous build)."}}