{"canonical_id_v02":"2fb4812fe158","identity":{"artist":"Takeuchi Moto","game":"mtg","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/3/f/3f57e0f9-e232-489c-b991-d0d23f75d8dd.jpg?1783904979","locale":"en","name":"Waterbender Ascension","number":"79","rarity":"rare","series_slug":"avatar-the-last-airbender","set_name":"Avatar: The Last Airbender","set_slug":"avatar-the-last-airbender","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"00f025b89d744f40","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-09-06T18:07:23Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.1"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-06T01:40:29.159572+00:00","listed_median":1.14,"market_price":1.14},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-06T01:40:29.159572+00:00","listed_median":0.99,"market_price":1.08}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397 probes: 8 games, 43 rows, nearest condition NM 42/43 — Wilson 95% 88-100% — cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2% by bucket timing; a sample, not a definition)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-06T01:40:29.159572+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":1.14,"latest_market_price":1.14,"primary_printing":"Foil","primary_printing_in_record":"Foil","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"mpapi_live":2,"tcgcsv_archive":30,"tcgcsv_forward":571},"as_of_date":"2026-09-06","ath_date":"2025-11-10","ath_price":5.57,"atl_date":"2025-11-25","atl_price":0.59,"canonical_id_v02":"2fb4812fe158","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":null,"card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":-4.2,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":-8.8,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":18.75,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":34,"DRAWDOWN":27,"HEATED":39},"cohort_label":"mtg-en-raw-nascent","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":0,"cohort_median_90d_pct":4.05,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-79.53,"current_price":1.14,"history_first_date":"2025-11-09","history_last_date":"2026-09-06","history_n_distinct_closes":230,"history_n_obs":603,"history_n_obs_series":302,"liquidity_tier":"T2","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-03-09","delta_pct":-31.3,"label":"-31% day-over-day","price":1.01,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2026-01-10","delta_pct":-28.9,"label":"-29% day-over-day","price":0.91,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2026-01-04","delta_pct":46.2,"label":"+46% day-over-day","price":1.17,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-12-25","delta_pct":39.8,"label":"+40% day-over-day","price":1.3,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-11-30","delta_pct":32.7,"label":"+33% day-over-day","price":1.46,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-11-25","delta_pct":-89.4,"label":"-89% off peak","price":0.59,"type":"drawdown_low"},{"date":"2025-11-21","delta_pct":-40,"label":"-40% day-over-day","price":0.84,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-11-15","delta_pct":-32.9,"label":"-33% day-over-day","price":3.74,"type":"outlier_spike"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":74,"regime_entered_date":"2026-09-06","regime_label":"HEATED","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":12,"DRAWDOWN":19,"HEATED":69},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":12,"DRAWDOWN":19,"HEATED":69},"regime_run_length_days":0,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2026-06-03","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-06-10","from":"CALM","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-06-13","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-06-14","from":"CALM","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-07-21","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-07-30","from":"CALM","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-07-31","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-08-02","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-04","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-08-07","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-08","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-08-12","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-24","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-08-25","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-27","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-08-28","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-31","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-09-04","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-09-05","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-09-06","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":-4.2,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":-8.8,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":14.7,"series_printing":"Foil","series_printing_determinacy":{"decided_by":"total_tiebreak","margin":0,"n_candidates":2,"pool":"recent","tie_members":["Foil","Normal"]}},"trajectory":{"return_1y_pct":null,"return_30d_pct":-8.8,"return_7d_pct":5.56,"return_90d_pct":18.75,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-08-07","price":1.25},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":1.26},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":1.26},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":1.23},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":1.27},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":1.31},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":1.31},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":1.3},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":1.3},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":1.34},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":1.34},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":1.31},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":1.31},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":1.31},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":1.21},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":1.21},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":1.19},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":1.13},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":1.13},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":1.15},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":1.08},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":1.08},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":1.1},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":1.08},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":1.08},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":1.08},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":1.07},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":1.11},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":1.17},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":1.11},{"date":"2026-09-06","price":1.14}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-06-08","price":0.96},{"date":"2026-06-10","price":0.95},{"date":"2026-06-12","price":0.91},{"date":"2026-06-14","price":0.96},{"date":"2026-06-16","price":0.99},{"date":"2026-06-18","price":1.04},{"date":"2026-06-20","price":1.04},{"date":"2026-06-22","price":1.03},{"date":"2026-06-24","price":1.03},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":1.05},{"date":"2026-06-28","price":1.05},{"date":"2026-06-30","price":1.14},{"date":"2026-07-02","price":1.12},{"date":"2026-07-04","price":1.04},{"date":"2026-07-06","price":1.03},{"date":"2026-07-08","price":1.03},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":1.01},{"date":"2026-07-12","price":1.02},{"date":"2026-07-14","price":0.99},{"date":"2026-07-16","price":0.96},{"date":"2026-07-18","price":0.96},{"date":"2026-07-20","price":0.88},{"date":"2026-07-22","price":0.94},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":0.98},{"date":"2026-07-26","price":0.97},{"date":"2026-07-28","price":0.99},{"date":"2026-07-30","price":1.06},{"date":"2026-08-01","price":1.12},{"date":"2026-08-03","price":1.2},{"date":"2026-08-05","price":1.2},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":1.25},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":1.26},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":1.27},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":1.31},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":1.3},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":1.34},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":1.31},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":1.21},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":1.19},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":1.13},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":1.08},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":1.1},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":1.08},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":1.07},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":1.17},{"date":"2026-09-06","price":1.14}],"series_key":"662402|Foil","series_printing":"Foil"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=Waterbender%20Ascension%20Avatar%3A%20The%20Last%20Airbender&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":"https://scryfall.com/search?q=Waterbender%20Ascension","tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=Waterbender%20Ascension%20Avatar%3A%20The%20Last%20Airbender&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"2fb4812fe158","game":"mtg","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/2fb4812fe158","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/mtg/builds/00f025b89d744f40/2f.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}