{"canonical_id_v02":"373d4abe6fb0","identity":{"artist":"Dany Orizio","game":"mtg","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/6/8/68896747-bab9-4c29-9fd0-764bebde96c4.jpg?1783938394","locale":"en","name":"Simic Initiate","number":"162","rarity":"common","series_slug":"modern-masters-2015","set_name":"Modern Masters 2015","set_slug":"modern-masters-2015","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"00f025b89d744f40","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-09-06T18:07:23Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.1"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-06T02:43:58.307873+00:00","listed_median":0.32,"market_price":0.11},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-06T02:43:58.307873+00:00","listed_median":0.23,"market_price":0.18}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397 probes: 8 games, 43 rows, nearest condition NM 42/43 — Wilson 95% 88-100% — cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2% by bucket timing; a sample, not a definition)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-06T02:43:58.307873+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":0.32,"latest_market_price":0.11,"primary_printing":"Foil","primary_printing_in_record":"Foil","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"mpapi_live":2,"tcgcsv_archive":111,"tcgcsv_forward":1625},"as_of_date":"2026-09-06","ath_date":"2026-01-27","ath_price":0.47,"atl_date":"2025-04-26","atl_price":0.05,"canonical_id_v02":"373d4abe6fb0","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":null,"card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":-15.38,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":-15.38,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":-26.67,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":45,"DRAWDOWN":26,"HEATED":29},"cohort_label":"mtg-en-raw-mature_secondary","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":0,"cohort_median_90d_pct":2.03,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-76.6,"current_price":0.11,"history_first_date":"2024-02-08","history_last_date":"2026-09-06","history_n_distinct_closes":24,"history_n_obs":1738,"history_n_obs_series":796,"liquidity_tier":"T2","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-02-14","delta_pct":-68.1,"label":"-68% day-over-day","price":0.15,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2026-01-27","delta_pct":30.6,"label":"+31% day-over-day","price":0.47,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-08-18","delta_pct":83.3,"label":"+83% day-over-day","price":0.33,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-07-06","delta_pct":33.3,"label":"+33% day-over-day","price":0.2,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-05-20","delta_pct":200,"label":"+200% day-over-day","price":0.15,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-04-26","delta_pct":-80,"label":"-80% day-over-day","price":0.05,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-04-26","delta_pct":-80,"label":"-80% off peak","price":0.05,"type":"drawdown_low"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":4,"record_block_scope":"per_print_page","regime_entered_date":"2026-07-18","regime_label":"HEATED","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":6,"DRAWDOWN":36,"HEATED":58},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":7,"DRAWDOWN":24,"HEATED":69},"regime_run_length_days":50,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2024-04-01","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2024-04-10","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2024-07-19","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2024-09-27","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2024-10-28","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2024-11-15","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-02-15","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2025-03-13","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-05-20","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2025-05-26","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2025-09-07","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2025-12-13","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-02-15","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-02-28","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-04-27","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-05-30","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-07-05","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-07-09","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-07-14","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-07-18","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":-15.38,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":-15.38,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":-28.7,"series_printing":"Foil","series_printing_determinacy":{"base_decided_by":"total_tiebreak","base_series_printing":"Normal","decided_by":"per_print_page","margin":null,"n_candidates":2,"pool":null,"tie_members":[]}},"trajectory":{"return_1y_pct":-66.67,"return_30d_pct":-15.38,"return_7d_pct":0,"return_90d_pct":-26.67,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-08-07","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-06","price":0.11}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-06-08","price":0.15},{"date":"2026-06-10","price":0.15},{"date":"2026-06-12","price":0.15},{"date":"2026-06-14","price":0.15},{"date":"2026-06-16","price":0.15},{"date":"2026-06-18","price":0.14},{"date":"2026-06-20","price":0.14},{"date":"2026-06-22","price":0.14},{"date":"2026-06-24","price":0.14},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":0.14},{"date":"2026-06-28","price":0.14},{"date":"2026-06-30","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-02","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-04","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-06","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-08","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-12","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-14","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-16","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-18","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-20","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-22","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-26","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-28","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-07-30","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-01","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-03","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-05","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":0.13},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":0.11},{"date":"2026-09-06","price":0.11}],"series_key":"98851|Foil","series_printing":"Foil"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=Simic%20Initiate%20Modern%20Masters%202015&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":"https://scryfall.com/search?q=Simic%20Initiate","tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=Simic%20Initiate%20Modern%20Masters%202015&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"373d4abe6fb0","game":"mtg","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/373d4abe6fb0","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/mtg/builds/00f025b89d744f40/37.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}