{"canonical_id_v02":"4532d71c8460","identity":{"artist":"Toshinao Aoki","game":"pokemon","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://images.pokemontcg.io/xy12/111.png","locale":"en","name":"Surfing Pikachu","number":"111/108","rarity":"Rare Secret","series_slug":"xy-evolutions","set_name":"Xy Evolutions","set_slug":"xy-evolutions","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"065295aaf7a72ee2","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-09-05T10:16:27Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.0"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T20:43:26.446614+00:00","listed_median":11.99,"market_price":13.45}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T20:43:26.446614+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":11.99,"latest_market_price":13.45,"primary_printing":"Normal","primary_printing_in_record":"Normal","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"tcgcsv_archive":121,"tcgcsv_forward":819},"as_of_date":"2026-09-04","ath_date":"2026-09-03","ath_price":13.71,"atl_date":"2024-08-02","atl_price":1.49,"canonical_id_v02":"ad3e8a472b3a","canonical_id_v03":"4532d71c8460","canonical_id_v1":"e26fbadaa363","card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":9.53,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":18.92,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":38.52,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":44,"DRAWDOWN":12,"HEATED":44},"cohort_label":"pokemon-en-raw-modern_rotation","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":1.33,"cohort_median_90d_pct":6.25,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-1.9,"current_price":13.45,"history_first_date":"2024-02-08","history_last_date":"2026-09-04","history_n_distinct_closes":805,"history_n_obs":940,"history_n_obs_series":940,"liquidity_tier":"T1","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-08-28","delta_pct":null,"label":"CALM→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-08-22","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→CALM","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-08-21","delta_pct":null,"label":"CALM→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-08-20","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→CALM","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-08-19","delta_pct":null,"label":"CALM→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-07-19","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→CALM","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-07-18","delta_pct":null,"label":"CALM→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2024-08-02","delta_pct":-33.5,"label":"-33% off peak","price":1.49,"type":"drawdown_low"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":100,"regime_entered_date":"2026-08-28","regime_label":"HEATED","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":59,"DRAWDOWN":1,"HEATED":40},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":54,"DRAWDOWN":4,"HEATED":42},"regime_run_length_days":7,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2025-12-24","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2025-12-31","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-13","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-01-23","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-24","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-01-26","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-01-30","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-01-31","from":"CALM","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-02-01","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-03-03","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-03-26","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-04-23","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-05-28","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-07-18","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-07-19","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-08-19","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-20","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-08-21","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-22","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-08-28","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":9.53,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":17.59,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":32.27,"series_printing":"Normal","series_printing_determinacy":{"decided_by":"count","margin":181,"n_candidates":1,"pool":"recent","tie_members":[]}},"trajectory":{"return_1y_pct":142.78,"return_30d_pct":18.92,"return_7d_pct":3.78,"return_90d_pct":38.52,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-08-05","price":11.31},{"date":"2026-08-06","price":11.31},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":11.31},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":11.43},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":11.82},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":11.55},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":11.59},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":11.66},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":11.72},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":11.79},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":11.59},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":11.62},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":11.66},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":12.12},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":12.43},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":12.31},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":12.28},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":12.25},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":11.92},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":12.36},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":12.44},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":12.35},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":12.35},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":12.96},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":12.97},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":13.13},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":13.04},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":13.1},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":13.39},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":13.71},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":13.45}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-06-06","price":9.71},{"date":"2026-06-08","price":9.53},{"date":"2026-06-10","price":10.38},{"date":"2026-06-12","price":10.33},{"date":"2026-06-14","price":10.05},{"date":"2026-06-16","price":11},{"date":"2026-06-18","price":10.65},{"date":"2026-06-20","price":10.95},{"date":"2026-06-22","price":10.61},{"date":"2026-06-24","price":10.43},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":10.6},{"date":"2026-06-28","price":10.66},{"date":"2026-06-30","price":10.75},{"date":"2026-07-02","price":10.92},{"date":"2026-07-04","price":10.93},{"date":"2026-07-06","price":10.73},{"date":"2026-07-08","price":10.63},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":10.57},{"date":"2026-07-12","price":10.65},{"date":"2026-07-14","price":11.32},{"date":"2026-07-16","price":10.95},{"date":"2026-07-18","price":11.02},{"date":"2026-07-20","price":10.66},{"date":"2026-07-22","price":9.94},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":10.78},{"date":"2026-07-26","price":10.89},{"date":"2026-07-28","price":11.22},{"date":"2026-07-30","price":10.34},{"date":"2026-08-01","price":10.58},{"date":"2026-08-03","price":10.84},{"date":"2026-08-05","price":11.31},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":11.31},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":11.82},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":11.59},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":11.72},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":11.59},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":11.66},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":12.43},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":12.28},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":11.92},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":12.44},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":12.35},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":12.97},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":13.04},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":13.39},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":13.45}],"series_key":"124124|Normal","series_printing":"Normal"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=Surfing%20Pikachu%20Xy%20Evolutions&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":"https://pokemontcg.io/cards/surfing-pikachu","scryfall_url":null,"tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=Surfing%20Pikachu%20Xy%20Evolutions&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"4532d71c8460","game":"pokemon","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/4532d71c8460","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/pokemon/builds/065295aaf7a72ee2/45.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}