{"canonical_id_v02":"5a95cc2a6649","identity":{"artist":"Matteo Bassini","game":"mtg","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://cards.scryfall.io/normal/front/6/8/6829b20d-c2fa-41a6-89ca-f21c522d8866.jpg?1783904949","locale":"en","name":"War Balloon","number":"159","rarity":"uncommon","series_slug":"avatar-the-last-airbender","set_name":"Avatar: The Last Airbender","set_slug":"avatar-the-last-airbender","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"00f025b89d744f40","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-09-06T18:07:23Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.1"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:19:36.090481+00:00","listed_median":0.25,"market_price":0.24},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:19:36.090481+00:00","listed_median":0.2,"market_price":0.16}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397 probes: 8 games, 43 rows, nearest condition NM 42/43 — Wilson 95% 88-100% — cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2% by bucket timing; a sample, not a definition)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-09-04T18:19:36.090481+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":0.25,"latest_market_price":0.24,"primary_printing":"Foil","primary_printing_in_record":"Foil","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"tcgcsv_archive":30,"tcgcsv_forward":561},"as_of_date":"2026-09-05","ath_date":"2026-07-17","ath_price":0.26,"atl_date":"2025-12-03","atl_price":0.03,"canonical_id_v02":"5a95cc2a6649","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":null,"card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":-4,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":-4,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":14.29,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":34,"DRAWDOWN":27,"HEATED":39},"cohort_label":"mtg-en-raw-nascent","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":0,"cohort_median_90d_pct":4.05,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-7.69,"current_price":0.24,"history_first_date":"2025-11-16","history_last_date":"2026-09-05","history_n_distinct_closes":84,"history_n_obs":591,"history_n_obs_series":294,"liquidity_tier":"T2","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-01-27","delta_pct":33.3,"label":"+33% day-over-day","price":0.12,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-12-21","delta_pct":-27.3,"label":"-27% day-over-day","price":0.08,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-12-08","delta_pct":42.9,"label":"+43% day-over-day","price":0.1,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-12-07","delta_pct":40,"label":"+40% day-over-day","price":0.07,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-12-04","delta_pct":33.3,"label":"+33% day-over-day","price":0.04,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-12-03","delta_pct":-86.4,"label":"-86% off peak","price":0.03,"type":"drawdown_low"},{"date":"2025-11-29","delta_pct":-28.6,"label":"-29% day-over-day","price":0.05,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2025-11-28","delta_pct":-30,"label":"-30% day-over-day","price":0.07,"type":"outlier_spike"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":80,"record_block_scope":"per_print_page","regime_entered_date":"2025-11-19","regime_label":"HEATED","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":0,"DRAWDOWN":0,"HEATED":100},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":0,"DRAWDOWN":0,"HEATED":100},"regime_run_length_days":290,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2025-11-19","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":-4,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":-4,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":10.24,"series_printing":"Foil","series_printing_determinacy":{"base_decided_by":"total_tiebreak","base_series_printing":"Normal","decided_by":"per_print_page","margin":null,"n_candidates":2,"pool":null,"tie_members":[]}},"trajectory":{"return_1y_pct":null,"return_30d_pct":-4,"return_7d_pct":-4,"return_90d_pct":14.29,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-08-06","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-09","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-11","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-13","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-15","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-17","price":0.22},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":0.22},{"date":"2026-08-19","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-23","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-25","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-27","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-29","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-31","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-09-02","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-09-04","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":0.24}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-06-07","price":0.21},{"date":"2026-06-09","price":0.21},{"date":"2026-06-11","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-13","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-15","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-17","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-19","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-21","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-23","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-25","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-27","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-06-29","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-07-01","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-07-03","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-07-05","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-07-07","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-07-09","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-07-11","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-07-13","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-07-15","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-07-19","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-07-21","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-07-23","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-07-25","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-07-27","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-07-29","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-02","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-04","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-06","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":0.22},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":0.23},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":0.26},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":0.25},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":0.24},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":0.24}],"series_key":"660559|Foil","series_printing":"Foil"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=War%20Balloon%20Avatar%3A%20The%20Last%20Airbender&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":"https://scryfall.com/search?q=War%20Balloon","tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=War%20Balloon%20Avatar%3A%20The%20Last%20Airbender&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"5a95cc2a6649","game":"mtg","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/5a95cc2a6649","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/mtg/builds/00f025b89d744f40/5a.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}