{"canonical_id_v02":"e05bc148f43c","canonical_url_id":"e05bc148f43c","identity":{"artist":null,"game":"riftbound","grade":"raw","image_url":"https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/684517_200w.jpg","locale":"en","name":"Poppy, Keeper of the Hammer (Overnumbered)","number":"237/219","rarity":"Showcase","series_slug":"unleashed","set_name":"Unleashed","set_slug":"unleashed","vintage":"modern_rotation"},"lineage":null,"meta":{"build_inputs_sha":"e701c2df806490a0","confidence_tier":"T1_sales_derived","generated_at_utc":"2026-10-07T10:28:51Z","methodology_version":"v0.7","schema_version":"0.2.5"},"narrative":null,"price":{"bid_ask_spread_pct":null,"by_printing":{"Foil":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-10-07T02:49:38.116616+00:00","listed_median":50.9,"market_price":45.07},"Normal":{"buylist":null,"fetched_at_utc":"2026-10-07T02:49:38.116616+00:00","listed_median":null,"market_price":null}},"cohort_relative_zscore":null,"condition":"Near Mint","condition_basis":"TCGplayer market price per printing; the vendor's per-SKU history reads the same value for the Near Mint SKU (fu396/fu397/fu398 probes, two strata: 8 games, 43 rows at >= $5 — nearest condition NM 42/43, cent-equal 28/43, misses <= 2.2%; 5 games, 28 rows at >= $0.50 on year-old groups — nearest NM 27/28, cent-equal 16/28, misses <= 9.3%, the one miss a $1.29 card whose condition SKUs sit within cents; pooled nearest NM 69/71, Wilson 95% ~90-99%; a sample, not a definition; third stratum fu506 (top 8 per game, 24 decidable card rows): NM-consistent +-10% 17/24; 1 LP to the cent, 1 nearest HP at 117x, 2 at 1.7-1.8x NM, 1 NM unpriced; 35 of 64 top rows were sealed)","fetched_at_utc":"2026-10-07T02:49:38.116616+00:00","latest_buylist":null,"latest_listed_median":50.9,"latest_market_price":45.07,"primary_printing":"Foil","primary_printing_in_record":"Foil","primary_printing_resolution":"exact"},"similar_cards":[],"structure":{"_methodology_version":"v0.7","_source_breakdown":{"mpapi_live":1,"tcgcsv_forward":154},"as_of_date":"2026-10-07","ath_date":"2026-05-06","ath_price":189.99,"ath_since_release_date":"2026-05-08","ath_since_release_price":118.61,"atl_date":"2026-07-06","atl_price":33.96,"canonical_id_v02":"e05bc148f43c","canonical_id_v03":null,"canonical_id_v1":"e05bc148f43c","card_r14d_pct_cohort_estimator":1.35,"card_r30d_pct_cohort_estimator":-11.38,"card_r90d_pct_cohort_estimator":30.68,"climatology_baseline_pct":{"CALM":13,"DRAWDOWN":21,"HEATED":66},"cohort_label":"riftbound-en-raw-nascent","cohort_median_14d_pct":0,"cohort_median_30d_pct":-3.13,"cohort_median_90d_pct":6.62,"cohort_source":"derived","current_off_ath_pct":-76.28,"current_price":45.07,"history_first_date":"2026-05-06","history_first_date_series":"2026-05-06","history_last_date":"2026-10-07","history_last_date_series":"2026-10-07","history_n_distinct_closes":136,"history_n_obs":155,"history_n_obs_series":155,"liquidity_tier":"T1","notable_moments":[{"date":"2026-10-06","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-09-26","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-09-25","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-09-23","delta_pct":null,"label":"DRAWDOWN→HEATED","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-09-18","delta_pct":null,"label":"HEATED→DRAWDOWN","price":null,"type":"regime_break"},{"date":"2026-07-06","delta_pct":-82.1,"label":"-82% off peak","price":33.96,"type":"drawdown_low"},{"date":"2026-05-11","delta_pct":-27.5,"label":"-27% day-over-day","prev_date":"2026-05-10","prev_price":79.07,"price":57.34,"type":"outlier_spike"},{"date":"2026-05-08","delta_pct":-37.6,"label":"-38% day-over-day","prev_date":"2026-05-07","prev_price":189.99,"price":118.61,"type":"outlier_spike"}],"position_in_own_range_pctile":43,"recent_steps":{"dates":[],"dates_truncated":false,"n":0,"threshold_pct":50,"window_days":120},"regime_entered_date":"2026-10-06","regime_label":"DRAWDOWN","regime_occupancy_pct_1y":{"CALM":1,"DRAWDOWN":21,"HEATED":78},"regime_occupancy_pct_lifetime":{"CALM":1,"DRAWDOWN":21,"HEATED":78},"regime_run_length_days":1,"regime_transitions":[{"date":"2026-05-29","from":"HEATED","to":"CALM"},{"date":"2026-05-31","from":"CALM","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-07-12","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-07-19","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-08-29","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-09-14","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-09-18","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-09-23","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-09-25","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"},{"date":"2026-09-26","from":"DRAWDOWN","to":"HEATED"},{"date":"2026-10-06","from":"HEATED","to":"DRAWDOWN"}],"residual_vs_cohort_14d_pct":1.35,"residual_vs_cohort_30d_pct":-8.26,"residual_vs_cohort_90d_pct":24.05,"residual_vs_set_90d_pct":12.49,"series_printing":"Foil","series_printing_determinacy":{"decided_by":"count","margin":155,"n_candidates":1,"pool":"recent","tie_members":[]},"set_median_90d_pct_loo":18.18,"set_movers_share_90d":0.9218,"set_n_90d":307,"set_release_date":"2026-05-08","set_slug":"unleashed"},"trajectory":{"return_1y_base":null,"return_1y_pct":null,"return_30d_pct":-11.3842,"return_7d_pct":0.3116,"return_90d_pct":30.6756,"series_30d":[{"date":"2026-09-07","price":50.86},{"date":"2026-09-08","price":49.09},{"date":"2026-09-09","price":49.09},{"date":"2026-09-10","price":48.85},{"date":"2026-09-11","price":48.45},{"date":"2026-09-12","price":48.45},{"date":"2026-09-13","price":47.83},{"date":"2026-09-14","price":47.39},{"date":"2026-09-15","price":46.81},{"date":"2026-09-16","price":45.86},{"date":"2026-09-17","price":45.86},{"date":"2026-09-18","price":45.86},{"date":"2026-09-19","price":45.74},{"date":"2026-09-20","price":45.31},{"date":"2026-09-21","price":45.31},{"date":"2026-09-22","price":45.14},{"date":"2026-09-23","price":44.47},{"date":"2026-09-24","price":44.47},{"date":"2026-09-25","price":44.93},{"date":"2026-09-26","price":43.93},{"date":"2026-09-27","price":43.92},{"date":"2026-09-28","price":44.3},{"date":"2026-09-29","price":44.48},{"date":"2026-09-30","price":44.93},{"date":"2026-10-01","price":44.81},{"date":"2026-10-02","price":44.97},{"date":"2026-10-03","price":44.93},{"date":"2026-10-04","price":44.93},{"date":"2026-10-05","price":45.1},{"date":"2026-10-06","price":45.02},{"date":"2026-10-07","price":45.07}],"series_90d_thinned":[{"date":"2026-07-09","price":34.49},{"date":"2026-07-11","price":34.73},{"date":"2026-07-13","price":35.28},{"date":"2026-07-15","price":36.37},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":41.01},{"date":"2026-07-19","price":44.86},{"date":"2026-07-21","price":48.09},{"date":"2026-07-23","price":49.82},{"date":"2026-07-25","price":51.11},{"date":"2026-07-27","price":51.11},{"date":"2026-07-29","price":53.11},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":54.11},{"date":"2026-08-02","price":55.01},{"date":"2026-08-04","price":55.85},{"date":"2026-08-06","price":56.29},{"date":"2026-08-08","price":54.83},{"date":"2026-08-10","price":52},{"date":"2026-08-12","price":52.08},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":52.4},{"date":"2026-08-16","price":52.67},{"date":"2026-08-18","price":52.91},{"date":"2026-08-20","price":54.15},{"date":"2026-08-22","price":54.27},{"date":"2026-08-24","price":54.32},{"date":"2026-08-26","price":53.39},{"date":"2026-08-28","price":52.21},{"date":"2026-08-30","price":52.19},{"date":"2026-09-01","price":51.33},{"date":"2026-09-03","price":50.86},{"date":"2026-09-05","price":50.9},{"date":"2026-09-07","price":50.86},{"date":"2026-09-09","price":49.09},{"date":"2026-09-11","price":48.45},{"date":"2026-09-13","price":47.83},{"date":"2026-09-15","price":46.81},{"date":"2026-09-17","price":45.86},{"date":"2026-09-19","price":45.74},{"date":"2026-09-21","price":45.31},{"date":"2026-09-23","price":44.47},{"date":"2026-09-25","price":44.93},{"date":"2026-09-27","price":43.92},{"date":"2026-09-29","price":44.48},{"date":"2026-10-01","price":44.81},{"date":"2026-10-03","price":44.93},{"date":"2026-10-05","price":45.1},{"date":"2026-10-07","price":45.07}],"series_key":"684517|Foil","series_printing":"Foil"},"vendor_links":{"cardmarket_url":null,"ebay_search_url":"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=Poppy%2C%20Keeper%20of%20the%20Hammer%20%28Overnumbered%29%20Unleashed&mkcid=1&mkrid=711-53200-19255-0&campid=5339074870&toolid=10001","pokemontcg_url":null,"scryfall_url":null,"tcgplayer_url":"https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/all/product?q=Poppy%2C%20Keeper%20of%20the%20Hammer%20%28Overnumbered%29%20Unleashed&partner=7060428&utm_campaign=affiliate&utm_medium=tcgvibes&utm_source=tcgvibes"},"_handle":{"canonical_id":"e05bc148f43c","game":"riftbound","html":"https://tcgvibes.com/cards/e05bc148f43c","methodology":"https://tcgvibes.com/methodology","witness_chain":"https://tcgvibes-witness.jjk91525.workers.dev/chain/latest","build_shard":"cards/riftbound/builds/e701c2df806490a0/e0.json","provenance_fields":["price.fetched_at_utc","price.latest_market_price","price.primary_printing","meta.build_inputs_sha","meta.methodology_version","meta.schema_version","meta.confidence_tier","meta.generated_at_utc"],"reading":"`provenance_fields` lists the provenance keys THIS record actually carries, derived from it rather than written down: the price.* entries name the OBSERVATION, the meta.* entries identify the BUILD and the RULE that derived it. The witness chain carries the per-day envelope with its own code_commit and prev_hash. Every field here is served verbatim from the build shard — this block points, it never restates."}}