How prices move
Two years of daily, card-by-card prices, read for the regularities that repeat. Three hold across every game we cover. Each figure measures what has already happened, with its window attached; none of it is a forecast.
A new set's cards ease to about two-thirds of their release-week price, then settle.
~35% below release, most of it inside 13 weeks
A few cards carry a set. The single most valuable one holds 8% to 20% of all its value.
top card's share of its set, by game
Almost every card barely moves on a given day. The rare exception is large, and skews up.
the largest daily moves, of 71,940 measured
See which cards broke away lately
Each card writes its own story
Read the three together and a card's move is almost all its own. Across every game, about 97% of a day's price change belongs to the card itself, not the market moving together (from 92% to 99% by game).
So the market average says little about any one card. We read each card against its own history and name the break-away: the move a card's own past does not account for.