Research

How prices move

Two years of daily, card-by-card prices, read for the regularities that repeat. Each figure measures what has already happened, with its window attached; none of it is a forecast.

After a release

The median new set's price index stood 44% below its release-day close 26 weeks after release.

−26%
1 wk
−35%
4 wks
−42%
13 wks
−44%
26 wks

median set against its release-day close (for 6 sets, the end of release week); each age counts only the sets old enough to reach it: 103, 103, 78, 49

Value concentration

A few cards carry a set. The single most valuable one holds 8% to 22% of its set's summed card prices.

One Piece
22%
FAB
20%
Pokémon JP
18%
Lorcana
17%
Pokémon
16%
Yu-Gi-Oh!
13%
MTG
8%

top card's share of its set, by game

Big moves

For most cards, the biggest move was a rise.

+95%
where the top 10% of rises starts
−47%
where the top 10% of falls starts

each card's largest 4-week move relative to its set's average, across 74,293 cards; ignoring direction, the top 10% starts at 77%

60% up40% down

How much do new set prices fall after release?

Of the 103 sets released between Oct 22, 2025 and Sep 18, 2026 in the eight games we track, the median set's price index stood 35% below its release-day close four weeks after release. After 13 weeks, 42% below (78 sets old enough); after 26 weeks, 44% below (49 sets).

Seven stood at or above their release-day close at the latest reading, at least eight weeks after release: Art Series: Avatar: The Last Airbender (Magic: The Gathering, +226%); Armory Deck Origins: Hala (Flesh and Blood, +33.2%, products added later); Silver Age Chapter 1 (Flesh and Blood, +23.9%); Armory Deck: Arakni (Flesh and Blood, +18.1%); Silver Age Chapter 2 (Flesh and Blood, +16.4%); Armory Deck: Olympia (Flesh and Blood, +8.2%); Commander: Lorwyn Eclipsed (Magic: The Gathering, +3.7%).

Pokémon, 8 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
ME: 30th Celebrationreleased Sep 16, 2026−56.5%after 5 wks−39.2%−53.9%——−56.7%after 4 wks−48.2%median of 23
ME: 30th Celebration Classic Collectionreleased Sep 16, 2026−36.8%after 5 wks−16.7%−41.0%——−43.6%after 3 wks−48.6%median of 23
ME05: Pitch Blackreleased Jul 17, 2026−35.0%after 13 wks−27.7%−25.7%−34.7%—−44.2%first week−57.6%median of 21
Chaos Risingreleased May 22, 2026−55.9%after 21 wks−51.5%−46.2%−58.5%—−62.6%first week−51.3%median of 20
First Partner Collection 2026released Mar 30, 2026products added from Jun 2, 2026; figures from 13 wks on include them−62.8%after 29 wks−0.8%−0.4%−4.2%−58.8%−62.8%after 29 wks−54.6%median of 19
Perfect Orderreleased Mar 27, 2026−46.3%after 29 wks−40.8%−31.1%−35.5%−41.4%−46.3%after 29 wks−57.1%median of 19
Ascended Heroesreleased Jan 30, 2026products added from Mar 1, 2026; figures from 13 wks on include them−78.3%after 37 wks−44.8%−68.5%−77.8%−77.7%−79.9%after 16 wks−48.4%median of 17
Phantasmal Flamesreleased Nov 14, 2025−26.0%after 48 wks−50.2%−58.2%−42.8%−29.4%−62.8%after 5 wks−38.5%median of 16
Magic: The Gathering, 23 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
Secret Lair x MSCHF: The Zeta Setreleased Sep 2, 2026−36.8%after 7 wks−11.4%+2.9%——−36.8%after 7 wks−35.2%median of 77
Art Series: The Hobbitreleased Aug 14, 2026−41.5%after 9 wks−27.0%−38.5%——−42.5%after 7 wks−35.8%median of 76
The Hobbitreleased Aug 14, 2026−27.1%after 9 wks−15.7%−18.3%——−28.7%after 9 wks−36.7%median of 76
The Hobbit: Eternal-Legalreleased Aug 14, 2026−8.4%after 9 wks−7.9%−5.8%——−10.9%first week−36.7%median of 76
Art Series: Marvel Super Heroesreleased Jun 26, 2026−44.6%after 16 wks−15.7%−35.7%−42.6%—−44.7%after 16 wks−35.4%median of 73
Commander: Marvel Super Heroesreleased Jun 26, 2026−64.8%after 16 wks−34.5%−48.1%−63.9%—−65.3%after 15 wks−35.4%median of 73
Marvel Super Heroesreleased Jun 26, 2026−9.7%after 16 wks−2.5%+4.2%−5.0%—−13.9%first week−38.8%median of 73
Art Series: Secrets of Strixhavenreleased Apr 24, 2026−7.2%after 25 wks−9.5%−13.5%−9.5%—−14.2%after 8 wks−38.4%median of 70
Commander: Secrets of Strixhavenreleased Apr 24, 2026−56.1%after 25 wks−42.2%−53.4%−58.8%—−60.2%after 12 wks−37.3%median of 70
Promo Pack: Secrets of Strixhavenreleased Apr 24, 2026−42.9%after 25 wks−3.9%−9.9%−26.3%—−42.9%after 25 wks−37.3%median of 70
Secrets of Strixhavenreleased Apr 24, 2026−27.7%after 25 wks−27.0%−20.0%−27.6%—−29.6%after 12 wks−38.4%median of 70
Secrets of Strixhaven: Mystical Archivereleased Apr 24, 2026−12.3%after 25 wks−11.5%−4.3%−12.5%—−16.0%after 16 wks−38.4%median of 70
Art Series: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtlesreleased Mar 6, 2026−20.0%after 32 wks−8.5%−19.6%−30.0%−26.2%−30.1%after 12 wks−41.0%median of 65
Commander: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtlesreleased Mar 6, 2026−38.1%after 32 wks−19.8%−25.6%−32.8%−35.5%−38.1%after 32 wks−41.0%median of 65
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtlesreleased Mar 6, 2026−33.9%after 32 wks−25.6%−22.9%−33.6%−32.5%−35.0%after 32 wks−41.0%median of 65
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Source Materialreleased Mar 6, 2026−10.7%after 32 wks−8.0%+5.2%−6.4%−10.4%−13.9%after 19 wks−41.0%median of 65
Art Series: Lorwyn Eclipsedreleased Jan 23, 2026−48.5%after 38 wks−17.2%−24.2%−36.8%−46.0%−49.0%after 36 wks−41.7%median of 61
Commander: Lorwyn Eclipsedreleased Jan 23, 2026+3.7%after 38 wks−22.2%+7.0%+0.1%+4.5%−22.3%after 1 wks−41.9%median of 61
Lorwyn Eclipsedreleased Jan 23, 2026−23.3%after 38 wks−12.2%−13.6%−25.1%−23.8%−28.7%after 15 wks−41.9%median of 61
Promo Pack: Lorwyn Eclipsedreleased Jan 23, 2026products added from Feb 24, 2026; figures from 13 wks on include some of them, from 26 wks on a fifth of the set's current value−31.0%after 38 wks+4.0%+11.8%+9.6%−14.6%−31.0%after 38 wks−41.9%median of 61
Art Series: Avatar: The Last Airbenderreleased Nov 21, 2025+226%after 47 wks−0.1%−6.9%+17.2%+44.8%−7.3%after 4 wks−42.7%median of 57
Avatar: The Last Airbenderreleased Nov 21, 2025−23.0%after 47 wks−33.5%−35.3%−26.5%−24.0%−39.5%after 10 wks−42.7%median of 57
Avatar: The Last Airbender: Eternal-Legalreleased Nov 21, 2025−37.9%after 47 wks−37.3%−49.3%−42.3%−43.6%−49.3%after 4 wks−42.7%median of 57
Yu-Gi-Oh!, 15 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
Magnificent Monstersreleased Sep 4, 2026−35.9%after 6 wks−30.8%−39.5%——−43.5%after 5 wks−43.9%median of 46
Limited Pack World Championship 2026released Aug 29, 2026−72.6%after 7 wks−48.0%−66.7%——−72.6%after 7 wks−45.7%median of 45
Legendary Arc-V Decksreleased Aug 7, 2026−63.9%after 10 wks−58.7%−63.8%——−64.3%after 3 wks−45.4%median of 44
Ultimate Tournament Pack 1released Jul 8, 2026−62.4%after 15 wks−15.8%−38.5%−60.8%—−62.4%after 15 wks−48.7%median of 43
Chaos Originsreleased Jul 3, 2026−19.3%after 15 wks−11.9%−22.2%−27.0%—−32.0%after 11 wks−48.9%median of 43
Battles of Legend: Glorious Galleryreleased Jun 5, 2026−49.1%after 19 wks−41.8%−42.4%−49.2%—−52.3%after 5 wks−47.8%median of 41
Blazing Dominionreleased May 8, 2026−28.2%after 23 wks−2.5%−17.4%−29.7%—−35.8%after 14 wks−47.0%median of 40
Rarity Collection 5released Apr 17, 2026−61.8%after 26 wks−40.2%−55.4%−60.9%−62.0%−62.4%after 21 wks−48.5%median of 39
Legendary Modern Decks 2026released Mar 13, 2026−51.1%after 31 wks−33.3%−42.2%−46.6%−51.0%−52.1%after 30 wks−44.2%median of 38
Maze of Muertosreleased Feb 20, 2026−16.4%after 34 wks−8.5%−29.3%−24.7%−19.7%−34.9%after 4 wks−47.8%median of 37
Burst Protocolreleased Feb 6, 2026−24.7%after 36 wks−13.7%−26.7%−21.8%−26.2%−36.1%after 5 wks−47.6%median of 36
THE CHRONICLES DECK: Spirit Charmers (All-Foil Edition)released Jan 23, 2026−55.9%after 38 wks−40.7%−59.9%−55.0%−47.7%−60.0%after 33 wks−47.7%median of 35
Phantom Revengereleased Dec 19, 2025−66.9%after 43 wks−39.2%−57.8%−58.1%−57.8%−67.7%after 37 wks−44.6%median of 34
Legendary 5D's Decksreleased Nov 21, 2025−76.4%after 47 wks−32.1%−72.6%−77.9%−77.8%−80.4%after 6 wks−44.8%median of 33
THE CHRONICLES DECK: The Fallen & The Virtuous (All-Foil Edition)released Oct 24, 2025−39.8%after 51 wks−28.5%−30.5%−34.6%−40.1%−45.2%after 43 wks−46.4%median of 32
One Piece, 20 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
Set Sail Deck Setreleased Sep 18, 2026−33.8%after 4 wks−1.8%−25.4%——−36.1%after 4 wks−44.2%median of 55
The World's Strongest Warriorsreleased Aug 28, 2026−30.4%after 7 wks−11.5%−25.0%——−33.7%after 3 wks−48.5%median of 54
The World's Strongest Warriors Release Event Cardsreleased Aug 21, 2026; counted from the end of release week−53.3%after 8 wks−30.6%−44.3%——−53.3%after 8 wks−50.1%median of 53
Starter Deck 31: RED Monkey.D.Luffyreleased Jul 31, 2026−40.7%after 11 wks−29.1%−44.2%——−44.8%after 3 wks−51.2%median of 52
Starter Deck 32: GREEN Roronoa Zororeleased Jul 31, 2026−51.0%after 11 wks−31.5%−37.5%——−51.0%after 11 wks−51.2%median of 52
Starter Deck 33: BLUE Kuzanreleased Jul 31, 2026−56.7%after 11 wks−29.7%−51.8%——−59.2%after 10 wks−51.0%median of 52
Starter Deck 34: PURPLE Charlotte Katakurireleased Jul 31, 2026−66.2%after 11 wks−43.7%−55.5%——−66.4%after 11 wks−51.0%median of 52
Starter Deck 35: RED/BLACK Saboreleased Jul 31, 2026−62.4%after 11 wks−32.6%−58.5%——−63.0%after 8 wks−51.0%median of 52
Starter Deck 36: YELLOW Eustass"Captain"Kidreleased Jul 31, 2026−56.8%after 11 wks−33.2%−49.9%——−57.6%after 9 wks−51.0%median of 52
Starter Deck EX: Luffy & Acereleased Jun 19, 2026−27.8%after 17 wks−10.9%−17.5%−27.1%—−31.7%after 10 wks−52.9%median of 46
The Time of Battlereleased Jun 12, 2026−43.3%after 18 wks−15.5%−36.1%−47.0%—−47.6%after 7 wks−52.1%median of 45
The Time of Battle Release Event Cardsreleased Jun 5, 2026; counted from the end of release week−36.2%after 19 wks+9.2%−10.2%−31.3%—−36.2%after 19 wks−52.3%median of 44
Adventure on Kami's Islandreleased Apr 3, 2026−48.3%after 28 wks−27.1%−43.3%−46.2%−49.0%−51.2%after 23 wks−56.8%median of 43
Adventure on Kami's Island Release Event Cardsreleased Mar 27, 2026; counted from the end of release week−50.4%after 29 wks−11.2%−34.8%−44.5%−49.0%−50.4%after 29 wks−54.6%median of 42
Extra Booster: One Piece Heroines Editionreleased Feb 20, 2026−64.6%after 34 wks−47.4%−57.7%−60.1%−63.7%−65.3%after 9 wks−52.1%median of 41
Starter Deck 29: Eggheadreleased Jan 16, 2026−62.2%after 39 wks−49.9%−66.6%−68.8%−59.5%−70.6%after 10 wks−52.7%median of 40
The Azure Sea's Sevenreleased Jan 16, 2026−37.0%after 39 wks−4.9%−30.9%−41.7%−43.9%−48.5%after 24 wks−53.5%median of 40
The Azure Sea's Seven Release Event Cardsreleased Jan 9, 2026; counted from the end of release week−31.1%after 40 wks−8.1%−24.5%−30.8%−31.8%−33.0%after 19 wks−52.9%median of 38
Carrying On His Willreleased Nov 7, 2025−39.4%after 49 wks−18.8%−22.7%−9.0%−13.6%−42.3%after 46 wks−50.9%median of 37
Carrying On His Will: 3rd Anniversary Tournament Cardsreleased Oct 31, 2025−57.5%after 50 wks−38.6%−62.2%−68.8%−69.1%−69.9%after 21 wks−50.8%median of 36
Lorcana, 4 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
Attack of the Vine!released Jul 17, 2026−79.6%after 13 wks−64.9%−73.9%−77.9%—−79.6%after 13 wks−70.2%median of 12
Wilds Unknownreleased May 8, 2026−63.4%after 23 wks−52.0%−64.7%−61.7%—−66.7%after 2 wks−74.2%median of 11
Winterspellreleased Feb 13, 2026−60.5%after 35 wks−57.2%−64.2%−69.6%−61.6%−70.7%after 15 wks−76.3%median of 10
Whispers in the Wellreleased Nov 7, 2025−55.5%after 49 wks−46.7%−61.1%−60.5%−59.8%−65.1%after 7 wks−77.8%median of 9
Flesh and Blood, 15 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
Armory Deck: Malicereleased Sep 18, 2026−0.3%after 4 wks−1.1%−0.4%——−3.2%after 3 wks−11.8%median of 39
Silver Age: Usurp the Shadow Thronereleased Sep 18, 2026+11.7%after 4 wks+6.5%+11.7%——0.0%first week−11.8%median of 39
Armory Deck: Olympiareleased Aug 7, 2026+8.2%after 10 wks+17.1%+16.8%——0.0%first week−26.4%median of 37
Mastery Pack Warriorreleased Aug 7, 2026−30.3%after 10 wks−9.9%−20.6%——−30.3%after 10 wks−19.6%median of 37
Gem Pack 5released Jun 5, 2026; counted from the end of release weekproducts added from Jul 5, 2026; figures from 4 wks on include some of them, from 13 wks on a fifth of the set's current value−62.6%after 19 wks−6.7%−11.8%−49.4%—−62.6%after 19 wks−27.2%median of 35
Omens of the Third Agereleased Jun 5, 2026−44.7%after 19 wks−26.1%−32.6%−41.8%—−44.9%after 18 wks−27.2%median of 35
Silver Age Chapter 3released Jun 5, 2026−7.9%after 19 wks−9.4%−10.6%−9.1%—−11.9%after 5 wks−31.0%median of 35
Armory Deck: Zyggyreleased May 29, 2026−69.5%after 20 wks−56.2%−51.0%−48.5%—−69.5%after 20 wks−23.9%median of 32
Armory Deck Origins: Halareleased Apr 17, 2026products added from Jun 7, 2026; figures from 13 wks on include them+33.2%after 26 wks−3.3%−1.2%+19.5%+33.2%−9.5%first week−30.9%median of 31
Compendium of Rathereleased Feb 13, 2026−48.2%after 35 wks−27.5%−35.4%−42.8%−45.2%−49.2%after 34 wks−26.2%median of 30
Compendium of Rathe - Antiquity Packreleased Feb 13, 2026−35.7%after 35 wks−29.0%−28.7%−29.9%−32.6%−36.3%after 34 wks−26.2%median of 30
Silver Age Chapter 1released Feb 13, 2026+23.9%after 35 wks+4.7%+18.6%+18.7%+25.5%−0.4%first week−31.3%median of 30
Silver Age Chapter 2released Feb 13, 2026+16.4%after 35 wks−1.7%−0.4%+2.6%+9.4%−2.1%after 1 wks−31.3%median of 30
Armory Deck: Araknireleased Dec 12, 2025+18.1%after 44 wks+17.4%+55.4%+49.2%+49.6%−39.1%first week−28.6%median of 26
Armory Deck: Rhinarreleased Nov 14, 2025−57.7%after 48 wks−33.9%−31.9%−23.5%−16.2%−58.0%after 48 wks−29.4%median of 25
Star Wars Unlimited, 7 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
Gamegenic Promosreleased Jul 27, 2026−15.9%after 12 wks−1.3%−5.1%——−15.9%after 10 wks−63.5%median of 18
Ashes of the Empirereleased Jul 17, 2026−47.8%after 13 wks−34.7%−44.3%−47.3%—−48.6%after 9 wks−68.3%median of 17
Ashes of the Empire - Weekly Play Promosreleased Jul 17, 2026; counted from the end of release week−75.2%after 13 wks−8.2%−32.7%−74.9%—−75.2%after 13 wks−60.6%median of 17
Twin Sunsreleased May 29, 2026−50.8%after 20 wks−23.3%−48.6%−47.0%—−51.2%after 8 wks−66.5%median of 15
A Lawless Timereleased Mar 13, 2026products added from Apr 12, 2026; figures from 13 wks on include some of them, from 26 wks on a fifth of the set's current value−50.6%after 31 wks−29.7%−34.9%−41.3%−48.1%−50.6%after 31 wks−71.1%median of 14
Secrets of Powerreleased Nov 7, 2025products added from Dec 6, 2025; figures from 13 wks on include some of them, from 26 wks on a fifth of the set's current value−47.0%after 49 wks−24.2%−35.6%−44.0%−38.6%−47.1%after 49 wks−71.9%median of 13
Secrets of Power: Weekly Play Promosreleased Nov 7, 2025−84.7%after 49 wks−17.3%−63.0%−74.6%−80.9%−84.9%after 49 wks−71.1%median of 13
Gundam Card Game, 11 sets
SetNow1 wk4 wks13 wks26 wksLowestOthers, same age
Deck Build Box Freedom Ascensionreleased Jul 24, 2026products added from Aug 31, 2026; only Now and Lowest include them−38.8%after 12 wks−24.0%−37.5%——−41.0%after 10 wks−64.8%median of 16
Freedom Ascensionreleased Jul 24, 2026−70.2%after 12 wks−55.5%−63.4%——−71.1%after 12 wks−59.5%median of 16
Eternal Nexusreleased Jun 26, 2026−72.5%after 16 wks−38.0%−55.9%−70.8%—−72.8%after 16 wks−63.9%median of 14
Starter Deck 10: Generation Pulsereleased Jun 26, 2026−38.1%after 16 wks−17.6%−26.7%−34.4%—−38.1%after 16 wks−68.0%median of 14
Phantom Ariareleased Apr 24, 2026−65.4%after 25 wks−57.9%−63.3%−68.0%—−70.3%after 8 wks−60.8%median of 12
Starter Deck 09: Destiny Ignitionreleased Mar 27, 2026−55.4%after 29 wks−25.8%−52.9%−53.8%−54.3%−56.3%after 8 wks−63.8%median of 11
Steel Requiemreleased Jan 30, 2026−67.9%after 37 wks−53.2%−61.6%−70.1%−67.8%−70.6%after 13 wks−69.2%median of 10
Starter Deck 07: Celestial Drivereleased Jan 16, 2026−73.2%after 39 wks−43.6%−62.6%−70.9%−70.7%−73.4%after 39 wks−66.4%median of 9
Starter Deck 08: Flash of Radiancereleased Jan 16, 2026−77.2%after 39 wks−49.6%−69.3%−76.0%−76.9%−77.7%after 37 wks−66.4%median of 9
Dual Impactreleased Oct 24, 2025−74.5%after 51 wks−62.0%−67.0%−74.3%−73.0%−75.9%after 38 wks−60.0%median of 7
Starter Deck 06: Clan Unityreleased Oct 24, 2025−67.0%after 51 wks−16.0%−35.8%−58.5%−57.6%−67.3%after 34 wks−60.0%median of 7

Each figure is the set's published price index against its release-day close (for 6 sets, the close at the end of release week); the index is built by the repeat-sales method from the daily TCGplayer market prices of the set's single cards and sealed products. “Others, same age” is the median of the same game's other sets at the same number of weeks after release, counting older sets too, not only the past year's releases. Sets whose index has no price before release are not counted. Where a set lists “products added”, products that reached the market more than four weeks after its release now hold a fifth or more of the set's current value. The note names the first column that includes some of them and, when it differs, the first by which products worth a fifth of the set's current value had arrived. Data through Oct 22, 2026. How the index is made.

How long do new set prices keep falling?

Of the 49 sets at least 26 weeks past release, 32 reached their lowest level so far more than four weeks ago, a median 11 weeks after release. Their index has since risen a median 18% from that low. The other 17 were at their lowest within the latest four weeks.

See which cards broke away lately

Why card by card

The whole market explains little of a card

Read the three together: the whole market moving as one explains little of any single card's move. Across the 7 game catalogues with enough history to measure it, about 97% of the week-to-week variation in a card's price is not explained by the whole market moving together (from 92% to 99% by game).

So the market average says little about any one card. We read each card against its own history and name the break-away: the move a card's own past does not account for.

Today's break-awaysThe price indicesHow the numbers are made